Feb 2024 – Updated all data sets with 2023 and Q1 2024 data. Added new forecasts. Added fraud impact and management survey data.
Oct 2020 – Updated all areas
May 2019 – First edition published
$35.8 billion
Global card fraud forecast for 2024 which equates to 6.5 cents per $100 spent on cards and double the 2014 total
34%
of merchants experience first-party card fraud globally (i.e. chargeback fraud)
42%
off all ecommerce fraud by value occurs in the US, 26% in Western Europe and 22% in Asia
20%
all ecommerce revenue is said to be lost to fraud in Latin America
Cumulative losses in online payments due to fraud are expected to amount to $343 billion for merchants between 2023 and 2027.
Of the 1072 companies surveyed by MRC, Cybersource, and Verifi, the percentage of revenue lost to payment fraud has fallen globally from 3.6% in 2022, to 2.9% in 2023.
The percentage of orders that led to chargebacks due to fraud reduced from 3.1% to 2.6%.
On almost every fraud metric for the ecommerce companies, Latin America suffered the most, while North America fared the best.
eCommerce revenue lost to payment fraud globally has decreased from 3.6% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023.
10% of annual ecommerce revenue is spent to manage payment fraud in Europe and the US compared to 15% in Asia Pacific and 19% in Latin Amercia.
Average card acceptance rates are best in the US which accept 75% card transactions on average. This compares to 60% in Europe and just 40% in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
Total card fraud amounted to £556.3m in 2022 in the UK, 6% up on 2021.
Card Not Present fraud, predominantly from ecommerce, made up 81% of all UK card fraud with 2.21million cases in 2022 (3% down in 2021) and losses of £396 million (down 4%).
Most forms of fraud losses have increased in the last 10 years except for counterfeit and card non-receipt losses.
Fraud to turnover ratio has decreased to 6% from a high of 8.4% in 2019.
A total of £1.2 billion card fraud was by banks and card companies. This is equivalent of £63.5 in every £100 of attempted card fraud was prevented by Banks and card companies.
45% of shoppers in the UK have admitted to return fraud or policy abuse, meaning around $22.8 billion in return-based fraud was estimated in 2022. 27% claimed they would only do it to large retailers, and 14% justified it as revenge for poor customer service.
The US accounts for 42% of global ecommerce fraud. According to the JPMorgan Payments Fraud and Control Survey Report:
Of the companies surveyed, 63% had experienced check fraud, which was significantly the most common type of fraud.
Corporate credit card fraud rose significantly in 2022 however, from 26% to 36%.
Cryptocurrency payment fraud increased five-fold.
Asia Pacific (APAC) accounts for 64% of global ecommerce spending, 3x greater than North America and 5x greater than Europe.
Around 5% of revenue is lost each year to payment fraud in APAC equating to about $4 for all transactions made.
Losses from online payment fraud are expected to exceed $200 billion in 2024 in APAC.
3.6% of orders in APAC result in a chargeback, which is the second highest globally. Promotion abuse grew by 52% in 2021, while 61% of merchants reported increased identity theft.
2.6% of orders are declined due to fraud being suspected. However, this has meant APAC merchants lose far more to false positives than actual fraud.
Australia suffered the most for dark web fraud in card selling, with Japan a close second.
Phishing attacks are the most common type of fraud, with 43% of merchants around the world being victims.
First-party misuse, such as friendly and chargeback fraud, ranks second, while card testing, identity theft, and coupon/refund abuse are the third, fourth, and fifth most common types of fraud.
Since 2021, phishing attacks have gone from third to first most common fraud attack. Re-shipping saw the greatest increase in rankings, from twelfth to ninth.
The top challenge facing merchants trying to managing fraud in 2023 was how to data effectively. Identifying and responding to emerging fraud attacks is now the second most common challenge.
46% of merchants priortise the reduction in fraud and chargebacks compared to 36% who believe the priority for fraud management is improving the customer experience.
On average, merchant now use 5 fraud detection tools compared to 4 in 2022. The most common are credit card verification services with 55% of businesses using them and another 13% planning to.
When it comes to the challenges that fraud management teams are concerned with, effectively using data to manage fraud has risen to number one. Identifying and responding to emergent attacks is second, while keeping up to date with new payment network rules is third
In 2023, 53% of companies are acknowledging fraud analytics as their key challenge to combat fraud, up from 44% in 2021.
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